KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

74%

72%

57%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.65u · ICON −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	15.5%	65.8%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	60.4%	60.4%	14.9%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	60.8%	50.0%	37.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	74.2%	61.3%	30.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	54.8%	60.3%	15.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	14.3%	57.5%	20.7%	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	9.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	12.7%	27.7%	13.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	17.2%	29.7%	19.0%	—	5.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	24.0%	6.2%	15.3%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.7%	10.5%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	10.3%	7.1%	11.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	11.6%	13.8%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	14.9%	9.9%	7.3%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	8.3%	13.5%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	10.0%	19.1%	6.8%	1.3%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	16.7%	13.9%	7.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.2%	14.4%	5.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.8%	15.0%	6.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	10.1%	11.3%	4.6%	1.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	11.8%	5.8%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.3%	6.8%	2.3%	3.2%	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.1%	8.6%	1.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.1%	10.2%	0.9%	1.3%	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	4.5%	2.3%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	85.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.7174
WeatherNext 2	74%	81.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.5461
AIFS Single	72%	81.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5127
IFS Ensemble	57%	79.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3238
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2809
ICON	44%	77.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1936

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗