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KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
85%
WN2
74%
AIFS
72%
EPS
57%
ICON
44%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u
VS
ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.65u · ICON −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 71.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 71.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 71.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 71.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:0071.6%56.9%73.9%84.7%44.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:0071.6%56.9%73.9%84.7%44.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0071.6%56.9%73.9%84.7%44.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:0071.6%56.9%73.9%84.7%44.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0071.6%56.9%73.9%84.7%44.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES85%85.0°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.7174
WeatherNext 274%81.9°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.5461
AIFS Single72%81.7°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.5127
IFS Ensemble57%79.3°F4.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.3238
National Blend53%79.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.2809
ICON44%77.0°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.1936

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗