KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.90u · EPS −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	1.4%	21.8%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	16.6%	16.6%	1.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	15.6%	10.0%	5.5%	—	5.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	24.5%	14.6%	3.3%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	10.0%	12.7%	0.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	10.1%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.6%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	81.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0681
NWS forecast	14%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0210
National Blend	10%	80.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0090
AIFS Single	6%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0037
WeatherNext 2	4%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0013
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗