KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.90u · EPS −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	24.9%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	24.9%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	24.9%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	24.9%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	24.9%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	24.8%	8.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	24.8%	15.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	24.8%	15.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	22.1%	15.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	35.1%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	22.2%	17.0%	35.1%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	22.2%	17.0%	23.4%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	22.2%	17.0%	23.4%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	22.2%	17.0%	23.4%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	22.2%	17.0%	23.4%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	23.4%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	23.4%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	23.4%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	23.4%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	24.4%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	26.7%	17.0%	30.7%	28.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00	18.8%	17.0%	30.7%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	18.8%	17.0%	30.7%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	18.8%	17.0%	30.7%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	18.8%	17.0%	30.7%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	18.8%	5.4%	15.2%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	18.8%	5.4%	15.2%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	18.8%	5.4%	15.2%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	18.8%	5.4%	15.2%	15.7%	38.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	11.7%	5.4%	15.2%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	15.2%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	15.2%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	15.2%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	11.7%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	19.3%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	19.3%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	19.3%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	19.3%	5.5%	10.7%	15.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	19.3%	5.5%	10.7%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	19.3%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	19.3%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	19.3%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	9.0%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	8.5%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	25.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	8.5%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	25.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	8.5%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	25.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	8.5%	5.4%	18.6%	8.7%	25.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00	8.5%	5.4%	18.6%	0.9%	25.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	3.6%	0.9%	25.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	3.6%	0.9%	25.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	3.6%	0.9%	25.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	6.0%	0.1%	3.6%	0.9%	25.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	3.6%	0.9%	26.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	81.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0681
NWS forecast	14%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0210
National Blend	10%	80.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0090
AIFS Single	6%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0037
WeatherNext 2	4%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0013
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗