KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

51%

45%

37%

32%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

HRESNO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.30u · HRES −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	25.4%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	66.4%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	34.2%	41.3%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	71.4%	74.3%	18.0%	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	60.1%	81.1%	34.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	53.0%	76.6%	50.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	46.0%	64.8%	38.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	64.7%	65.5%	50.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	37.4%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	68.6%	29.9%	48.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	47.3%	38.5%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	53.7%	38.2%	56.4%	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	53.8%	34.3%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	50.0%	35.7%	41.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	42.0%	35.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	44.9%	38.8%	43.9%	0.0%	20.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	47.9%	38.5%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	37.1%	39.2%	34.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	44.4%	35.7%	0.3%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	45.4%	43.0%	33.1%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	57.2%	38.1%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	50.0%	47.5%	46.3%	18.2%	17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	43.6%	33.7%	46.1%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	38.1%	35.6%	48.7%	17.3%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	39.0%	36.3%	47.2%	—	12.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	41.4%	44.2%	37.2%	21.2%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	54.5%	27.2%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	77.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	77.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	76.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	75.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗