KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

51%

45%

37%

32%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

HRESNO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.30u · HRES −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	54.3%	59.4%	64.7%	38.2%	66.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	54.3%	59.4%	57.5%	38.2%	66.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	54.3%	59.4%	57.5%	38.2%	66.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	54.3%	59.4%	57.5%	38.2%	66.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	54.6%	59.4%	57.5%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	54.6%	59.4%	57.5%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	54.6%	59.4%	57.5%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	54.6%	59.4%	57.5%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	54.6%	59.4%	57.5%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	50.9%	68.3%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	54.7%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	42.9%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	42.9%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	42.9%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	50.9%	68.9%	42.9%	37.7%	57.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	42.9%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	42.9%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	42.9%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	42.9%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	40.8%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	39.9%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	39.9%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	39.9%	68.9%	45.3%	38.6%	52.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	46.1%	54.8%	50.0%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	46.1%	54.8%	57.7%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	46.1%	54.8%	57.7%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	46.1%	54.8%	57.7%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	50.0%	54.8%	57.7%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	50.0%	54.8%	57.7%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	50.0%	54.8%	57.7%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	50.0%	54.8%	57.7%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	50.0%	54.8%	57.7%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:50+00:00	50.0%	53.1%	51.4%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	50.0%	53.1%	51.4%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	50.0%	53.1%	51.4%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	45.0%	53.1%	51.4%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	44.9%	53.1%	51.4%	32.3%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	77.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	77.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	76.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	75.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗