KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

29%

22%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.10u

ICONNO 78.9¢Risks 78.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.90u · ICON −78.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	53.9%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	22.8%	28.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	58.4%	61.8%	10.2%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	45.6%	69.6%	22.1%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	38.0%	63.5%	35.1%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	30.9%	49.2%	24.2%	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	48.3%	49.2%	34.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	22.6%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	51.7%	16.7%	31.4%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	30.2%	22.9%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	35.6%	22.3%	38.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	35.2%	19.0%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	31.3%	19.7%	24.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	24.1%	19.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	25.9%	21.2%	25.1%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	27.9%	20.5%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	19.0%	20.6%	16.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	24.0%	17.5%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	24.2%	22.4%	15.3%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	33.6%	18.3%	20.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	26.6%	24.6%	23.6%	6.3%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	20.9%	14.3%	22.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	14.9%	24.0%	5.3%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	16.4%	14.7%	22.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	17.2%	19.1%	14.6%	6.3%	5.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	26.0%	8.6%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	78.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	77.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	75.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗