KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

29%

22%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.10u

ICONNO 78.9¢Risks 78.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.90u · ICON −78.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:08+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	47.1%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	47.1%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	57.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	57.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	57.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	61.1%	36.4%	57.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	57.7%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	57.7%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	57.7%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	57.7%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	32.9%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	46.1%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	36.6%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	66.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	45.2%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	34.7%	23.8%	32.4%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	34.7%	23.8%	32.4%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	34.7%	23.8%	32.4%	25.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	35.6%	23.8%	32.4%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	32.4%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	32.4%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	32.4%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	32.4%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	35.5%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	65.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	50.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	50.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	50.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	44.7%	11.1%	50.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	44.7%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	33.9%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	37.2%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	37.2%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	37.2%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	37.2%	23.8%	43.6%	24.2%	50.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	25.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	25.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	25.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	17.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	17.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	17.7%	15.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	27.1%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	17.7%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	28.8%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	12.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	33.6%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	8.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	33.6%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	8.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	33.6%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	8.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	33.6%	22.1%	29.1%	11.8%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	78.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	77.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	75.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗