KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

17%

14%

11%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.0¢Risks 6.50u

ICONNO 87.0¢Risks 43.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.50u · ICON −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	7.7%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	9.0%	48.6%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	31.1%	51.4%	1.4%	—	16.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	43.4%	44.2%	20.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	43.9%	26.4%	26.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	34.5%	20.6%	14.5%	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	35.3%	29.3%	21.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	22.6%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	28.4%	24.8%	19.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	27.9%	22.9%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	29.7%	14.4%	15.4%	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	31.8%	13.7%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	35.7%	12.1%	19.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	31.7%	14.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	25.1%	12.8%	21.9%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	29.8%	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	26.4%	13.1%	15.5%	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	26.7%	13.5%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	21.5%	14.0%	11.6%	0.0%	4.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	13.2%	10.2%	11.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.0%	11.2%	13.7%	2.3%	5.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	14.3%	9.2%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	78.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	79.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗