KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

17%

14%

11%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.0¢Risks 6.50u

ICONNO 87.0¢Risks 43.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.50u · ICON −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:08+00:00	34.1%	35.0%	39.8%	26.4%	57.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	34.1%	35.0%	39.8%	26.4%	57.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	34.1%	35.0%	47.6%	26.4%	57.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	34.1%	35.0%	47.6%	26.4%	57.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	34.1%	35.0%	47.6%	26.4%	57.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	47.6%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	47.6%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	47.6%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	47.6%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	47.6%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	42.6%	35.0%	41.5%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	42.6%	16.9%	41.5%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	42.6%	16.9%	41.5%	27.7%	64.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	50.7%	16.9%	41.5%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	50.7%	16.9%	41.5%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	41.5%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	41.5%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	45.7%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	45.7%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	45.7%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	50.7%	15.4%	45.7%	27.7%	64.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	45.7%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	45.7%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	45.7%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	45.7%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	35.5%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	33.4%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	34.8%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	65.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	33.6%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	33.6%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	33.6%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	33.6%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	33.6%	15.4%	32.6%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	33.6%	20.8%	26.3%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	33.6%	20.8%	26.3%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	33.6%	20.8%	26.3%	30.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	36.6%	20.8%	26.3%	26.1%	54.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	36.6%	20.8%	26.3%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	26.3%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	26.3%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	26.3%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	54.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	26.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	30.5%	21.8%	56.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	36.6%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	40.4%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	40.4%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	40.4%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	40.4%	20.5%	25.6%	21.8%	55.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.9%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.9%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.9%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	13.6%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	13.6%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	13.6%	15.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	13.6%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	13.6%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	13.6%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	13.6%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	13.6%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	16.7%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	20.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	19.3%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	6.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	19.3%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	6.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	19.3%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	6.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	19.3%	14.9%	16.7%	12.6%	6.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	19.3%	16.8%	13.6%	11.3%	6.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	78.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	79.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗