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KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
8%
HRES
8%
ICON
6%
WN2
5%
EPS
3%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 5.7¢Risks 1.41u
VS
EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.59u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.59u · EPS −23.59u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.2%————1.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0013.1%————6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0034.0%————9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:004.5%————11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0010.0%————22.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0013.4%————16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0015.9%————23.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0026.5%————17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0038.9%————22.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0042.5%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0039.1%————26.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0037.4%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0040.4%————20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0040.8%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0031.9%————19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0024.2%————21.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—39.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0017.2%—49.4%——15.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0010.0%—36.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:008.0%—27.8%——9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:007.4%—24.8%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0011.4%0.4%12.4%——11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:006.9%—21.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:007.4%27.5%13.0%0.3%—10.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:007.8%—10.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:006.4%37.1%8.4%7.9%—9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.5%—9.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.6%31.6%11.4%8.7%—7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:006.6%—10.9%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.2%26.8%7.5%8.7%—7.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.3%—6.8%——6.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.0%20.7%7.1%6.9%—5.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:002.3%10.7%7.8%——4.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.2%21.4%5.7%6.8%—4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.9%20.9%5.0%——3.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.3%14.4%5.3%3.9%—2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.4%15.4%4.2%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.3%9.4%3.0%5.9%—3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.8%13.0%3.4%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.6%7.1%2.6%4.0%—1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.6%6.5%2.3%——1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.6%7.7%1.5%5.0%1.2%2.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.3%—2.1%0.0%—1.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast33%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single8%79.9°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES8%79.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON6%80.1°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend5%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%80.3°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%81.0°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗