KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.7¢Risks 1.41u

EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.59u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.59u · EPS −23.59u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:40+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	26.4%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	26.4%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	26.4%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	26.4%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	26.4%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	26.7%	6.4%	24.2%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	26.7%	2.0%	24.2%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	26.7%	2.0%	24.2%	22.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	20.0%	2.0%	24.5%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	20.0%	2.0%	24.5%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	24.5%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	24.5%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	22.1%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	22.1%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	22.1%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	20.0%	2.3%	22.1%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	22.1%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	22.1%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	22.1%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	22.1%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	21.0%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	16.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	22.6%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	54.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	19.2%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	19.2%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	19.2%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	19.2%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	19.2%	2.3%	17.7%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.3%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.3%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.3%	17.1%	60.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	13.3%	19.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	13.3%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	13.3%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	13.3%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	13.3%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	14.2%	19.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	14.2%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	19.2%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.7%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.3%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.3%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	22.4%	0.5%	13.3%	15.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	19.9%	0.5%	13.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	19.9%	0.5%	13.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	19.9%	0.5%	13.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	19.9%	0.5%	13.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	19.9%	0.5%	13.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	19.9%	1.3%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	19.9%	1.3%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	19.9%	1.3%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	16.2%	1.3%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	16.1%	1.3%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	8.3%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	11.2%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	11.2%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	11.2%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	11.2%	15.0%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	11.2%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	11.2%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	11.2%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	11.2%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	13.3%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	9.4%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	12.6%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	12.6%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	12.6%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	12.1%	1.5%	12.6%	14.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	10.7%	1.5%	12.6%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	10.7%	1.5%	12.6%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	10.7%	1.5%	12.6%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	10.7%	1.5%	12.6%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	7.4%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.3%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.3%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.3%	7.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.3%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.3%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.3%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.3%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.3%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	9.2%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	6.0%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	10.9%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	10.9%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	10.7%	0.7%	10.9%	6.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	10.9%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	10.9%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	10.9%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	10.9%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	10.9%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	9.5%	1.0%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	9.5%	1.0%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	9.5%	1.0%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	7.7%	1.0%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	7.6%	1.0%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	5.1%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	3.3%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	3.3%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	7.6%	0.8%	3.3%	6.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	3.3%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	3.3%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	3.3%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	3.3%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	3.3%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	4.5%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	6.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	6.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	6.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	8.3%	0.8%	5.1%	5.3%	6.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.7%	7.9%	6.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.7%	7.9%	6.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.7%	7.9%	6.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.7%	7.9%	6.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.6%	7.9%	6.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	8.3%	3.0%	4.6%	7.9%	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	33%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	81.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗