KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

25%

19%

17%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u

EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	32.4%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	5.6%	29.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	52.1%	21.9%	1.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	45.6%	26.6%	23.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	23.4%	18.9%	20.0%	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	20.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	20.1%	18.9%	19.5%	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	21.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	25.8%	21.9%	17.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	19.6%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	29.1%	16.7%	14.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	24.9%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	25.1%	19.6%	14.9%	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	26.9%	20.3%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	24.0%	20.3%	14.7%	9.8%	9.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	25.7%	—	—	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	82.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	81.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	79.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	78.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	81.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗