KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

25%

19%

17%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u

EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00	38.4%	19.8%	35.5%	31.6%	68.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	38.4%	19.8%	38.4%	31.6%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	38.4%	19.8%	38.4%	31.6%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	38.4%	19.8%	38.4%	31.6%	68.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	32.2%	19.8%	38.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	32.2%	19.8%	38.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	32.2%	19.8%	38.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	32.2%	19.8%	38.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	32.2%	19.8%	38.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	32.2%	21.2%	33.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	32.2%	21.2%	33.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	32.2%	21.2%	33.4%	31.9%	66.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	29.6%	21.2%	33.4%	32.2%	66.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	29.6%	21.2%	33.5%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	33.5%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	33.5%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	28.2%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	28.2%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	28.2%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	29.6%	20.6%	28.2%	31.9%	66.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	28.2%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	28.2%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	28.2%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	28.2%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	26.8%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	49.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	19.8%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	19.8%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	19.8%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	19.8%	20.6%	29.7%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	19.8%	15.9%	21.1%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	19.8%	15.9%	21.1%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	19.8%	15.9%	21.1%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	19.8%	15.9%	21.1%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	19.3%	15.9%	21.1%	23.4%	40.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	18.7%	9.4%	21.8%	19.9%	47.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	18.7%	9.4%	28.8%	19.9%	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	18.7%	9.4%	28.8%	19.9%	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	18.7%	9.4%	28.8%	19.9%	47.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	28.8%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	28.8%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	28.8%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	28.8%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	28.8%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	25.1%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	25.1%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	22.9%	9.4%	25.1%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	19.2%	9.4%	25.1%	16.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	19.1%	9.4%	25.1%	16.9%	43.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	82.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	81.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	79.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	78.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	81.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗