KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

29%

16%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.45u

HRESNO 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.55u · HRES −70.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	44.6%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	35.4%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.4%	31.8%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	13.4%	22.4%	0.7%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	14.4%	15.6%	8.4%	—	7.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	10.7%	13.8%	10.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	20.6%	20.6%	12.7%	13.6%	4.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	23.7%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	17.3%	23.2%	9.7%	—	5.6%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.2%	15.2%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	19.6%	—	9.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	16.1%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	15.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	81.6°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	78.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	72.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗