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KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
52%
WN2
29%
AIFS
16%
ICON
14%
HRES
7%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.45u
VS
HRESNO 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.55u · HRES −70.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:0016.5%51.9%29.2%7.0%14.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0016.5%51.9%29.2%7.0%14.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0016.5%51.9%29.2%7.0%14.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0016.5%51.9%29.2%7.0%14.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%81.6°F2.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%78.5°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single16%75.9°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON14%70.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%72.0°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗