KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.15u

EPSNO 84.9¢Risks 84.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.85u · EPS −84.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	24.2%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	14.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	9.9%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	9.6%	0.3%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	9.0%	17.5%	8.2%	8.2%	3.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	80.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	78.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗