KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.15u

EPSNO 84.9¢Risks 84.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.85u · EPS −84.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	13.7%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	13.7%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	13.7%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	13.7%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	13.7%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	10.9%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	10.9%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	10.9%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	7.0%	0.2%	10.9%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.8%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.8%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.8%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.8%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.5%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.5%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	6.9%	0.2%	10.5%	6.6%	13.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	10.5%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	10.5%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	10.5%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	10.5%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	10.5%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	8.7%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	9.1%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	30.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	30.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	30.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	11.6%	7.9%	30.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	14.1%	0.1%	8.9%	8.4%	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	80.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	78.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗