KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

21%

13%

10%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.8¢Risks 24.75u

AIFSNO 75.2¢Risks 75.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.25u · AIFS −75.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.0%	13.9%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	43.0%	19.4%	0.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	26.6%	35.0%	5.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	15.5%	1.7%	2.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.2%	2.5%	0.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.6%	5.1%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	3.1%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	1.5%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	45%	79.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2052
ICON	40%	77.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1640
IFS HRES	21%	74.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0458
IFS Ensemble	13%	74.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0177
WeatherNext 2	10%	73.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0098
AIFS Single	9%	72.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0081

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗