KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

21%

13%

10%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.8¢Risks 24.75u

AIFSNO 75.2¢Risks 75.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.25u · AIFS −75.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00	20.1%	32.4%	5.6%	33.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	20.1%	32.4%	10.6%	33.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	20.1%	32.4%	10.6%	33.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	20.1%	32.4%	10.6%	33.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	20.1%	32.4%	10.6%	33.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00	22.0%	32.4%	10.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	22.0%	32.4%	10.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	22.0%	32.4%	10.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	22.0%	32.4%	10.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	22.0%	13.9%	3.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	22.0%	13.9%	3.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	22.0%	13.9%	3.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	22.0%	13.9%	3.6%	28.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	17.3%	13.9%	3.7%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	3.7%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	3.7%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	3.7%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	17.3%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	40.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	40.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	40.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	4.4%	28.6%	40.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	4.4%	21.4%	40.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	9.9%	21.4%	40.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	9.9%	21.4%	40.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	20.9%	13.3%	9.9%	21.4%	40.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	9.0%	13.3%	9.9%	21.4%	40.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	9.0%	13.3%	9.9%	21.4%	40.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	45%	79.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2052
ICON	40%	77.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1640
IFS HRES	21%	74.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0458
IFS Ensemble	13%	74.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0177
WeatherNext 2	10%	73.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0098
AIFS Single	9%	72.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0081

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗