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KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
ICON
2%
WN2
2%
AIFS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
AIFSNO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0024.4%————8.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0019.7%————6.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.6%————4.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————5.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%————3.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0012.8%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.1%————3.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:007.3%————5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.6%————4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.4%————7.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.5%————10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.3%————10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.4%—0.0%——8.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.8%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.3%————4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.5%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.0%—0.1%——3.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:008.9%—1.7%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.2%0.0%3.9%——6.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.4%—5.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%18.9%5.8%0.0%—3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.2%—1.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.5%8.7%13.2%1.0%—1.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.9%—0.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.1%3.8%0.2%0.2%—1.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.2%—2.5%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.3%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast10%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0106
IFS HRES8%74.3°F6.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0064
National Blend8%78.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0059
IFS Ensemble2%74.8°F4.2°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
ICON2%70.8°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0003
WeatherNext 22%73.6°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0003
AIFS Single1%72.3°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗