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KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
ICON
2%
WN2
2%
AIFS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
AIFSNO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00ICON: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0010-12 07:4810-13 08:4910-14 09:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:0015.4%11.9%3.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:0015.4%11.9%3.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:0015.4%11.9%3.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0015.4%11.9%3.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0015.4%11.9%3.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:0015.4%11.9%3.9%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:0015.4%12.8%3.9%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:0015.4%12.8%3.9%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:008.7%12.8%3.9%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:008.8%12.8%4.0%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:008.8%12.8%4.0%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:008.8%12.8%4.0%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:008.8%12.8%2.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:008.8%12.8%2.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:008.8%12.8%2.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:008.8%12.8%2.8%36.4%1.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:001.1%12.8%2.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:001.1%12.8%2.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:001.1%12.8%2.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:001.1%12.8%2.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:001.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:001.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:001.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:001.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:006.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:006.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:006.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:10+00:006.1%12.8%0.8%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:006.1%12.8%2.0%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:006.1%12.8%2.0%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:006.1%12.8%2.0%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:006.1%12.8%2.0%14.5%48.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:006.4%12.8%2.0%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:006.4%12.8%2.0%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:006.4%12.8%2.0%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:006.4%12.8%2.0%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:006.4%2.2%0.4%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:006.4%2.2%0.4%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:006.4%2.2%0.4%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:006.4%2.2%0.4%12.0%29.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:004.5%2.2%0.4%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:004.5%2.0%0.4%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:004.5%2.0%0.4%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:004.5%2.0%0.4%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:004.5%2.0%0.5%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:004.5%2.0%0.5%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:004.5%2.0%0.5%12.0%29.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:005.9%2.0%0.5%12.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:005.9%2.0%0.5%12.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:005.9%2.0%0.5%12.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:005.9%2.0%0.5%12.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:005.9%2.0%0.5%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:005.9%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:005.9%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:005.9%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:001.8%2.0%1.6%8.0%20.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:001.2%2.0%1.6%8.0%1.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:001.2%2.0%1.6%8.0%1.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:001.2%2.0%1.6%8.0%1.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:001.2%2.0%1.6%8.0%1.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast10%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0106
IFS HRES8%74.3°F6.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0064
National Blend8%78.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0059
IFS Ensemble2%74.8°F4.2°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
ICON2%70.8°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0003
WeatherNext 22%73.6°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0003
AIFS Single1%72.3°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗