KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

18%

15%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.6¢Risks 6.30u

ICONNO 87.4¢Risks 43.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.70u · ICON −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	11.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.4%	6.9%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	2.5%	17.5%	2.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	7.8%	9.3%	3.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	5.1%	9.3%	5.7%	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	3.1%	5.3%	5.6%	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	7.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	5.4%	7.7%	5.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	5.0%	6.3%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	3.9%	3.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	5.3%	3.2%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.4%	2.9%	5.9%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.4%	4.2%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	3.5%	4.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.7%	2.4%	2.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.1%	2.6%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.9%	2.2%	2.1%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.5%	1.7%	1.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.5%	1.7%	1.8%	2.5%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.8%	1.6%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	79.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	79.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗