KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

18%

15%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.6¢Risks 6.30u

ICONNO 87.4¢Risks 43.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.70u · ICON −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	16.2%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	16.2%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	18.4%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	18.4%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	18.4%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	40.5%	6.6%	18.4%	24.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	18.4%	26.7%	29.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	18.4%	26.7%	29.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	18.4%	26.7%	29.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	18.4%	26.7%	29.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	31.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	35.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	35.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	35.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	35.5%	6.6%	26.7%	26.7%	29.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00	29.3%	7.1%	33.1%	9.4%	15.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	29.3%	7.1%	31.3%	9.4%	15.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	29.3%	7.1%	31.3%	9.4%	15.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	29.3%	7.1%	31.3%	9.4%	15.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	28.5%	7.1%	31.3%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	28.5%	7.1%	31.3%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	28.5%	7.1%	31.3%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	28.5%	7.1%	31.3%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	28.5%	7.1%	31.3%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	28.5%	8.0%	25.1%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	28.5%	8.0%	25.1%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	28.5%	8.0%	25.1%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	26.3%	8.0%	25.1%	10.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	26.4%	8.0%	25.1%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	25.1%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	25.1%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	20.3%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	20.3%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	20.3%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	26.4%	4.2%	20.3%	10.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	20.3%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	20.3%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	20.3%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	20.3%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	22.9%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:24+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	16.1%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	22.6%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	22.6%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	22.6%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	25.0%	4.2%	22.6%	6.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	23.4%	4.2%	22.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	23.4%	4.2%	22.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	23.4%	4.2%	22.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	23.4%	4.2%	22.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	23.4%	5.5%	13.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	23.4%	5.5%	13.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	23.4%	5.5%	13.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	23.4%	5.5%	13.6%	7.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	21.3%	6.1%	13.6%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	21.3%	6.1%	13.6%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	13.6%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	13.6%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	7.9%	4.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	21.3%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	11.8%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	19.5%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	19.5%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	22.0%	4.7%	19.5%	6.7%	2.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	19.5%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	19.5%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	19.5%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	19.5%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	19.5%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	20.8%	10.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	20.8%	10.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	20.8%	10.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	16.8%	10.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	16.7%	10.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	11.0%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	6.9%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	6.9%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	16.7%	11.2%	6.9%	10.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	16.1%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	6.5%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	18.6%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	2.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	21.5%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	21.5%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	21.5%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	21.5%	11.2%	15.9%	6.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	21.5%	17.9%	12.8%	15.3%	3.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	21.5%	17.9%	12.8%	15.3%	3.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	21.5%	17.9%	12.8%	15.3%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	21.5%	17.9%	12.8%	15.3%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	21.5%	17.8%	12.8%	15.3%	3.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	21.5%	17.8%	12.8%	15.3%	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	79.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	79.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗