KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

88%

71%

64%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.65u · ICON −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	44.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	0.6%	33.6%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	19.9%	47.9%	0.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	42.0%	62.3%	25.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	38.0%	51.5%	55.3%	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	46.8%	54.8%	36.7%	—	57.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	34.5%	49.2%	45.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	22.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	50.0%	59.6%	41.3%	49.1%	68.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	58.0%	—	—	60.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	80.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	81.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗