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KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
90%
AIFS
88%
HRES
71%
ICON
64%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u
VS
ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.65u · ICON −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00ICON: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:0084.4%83.4%81.6%58.2%55.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0084.4%83.4%81.6%58.2%55.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0084.4%83.4%90.6%58.2%55.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0084.4%83.4%90.6%58.2%55.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0084.4%83.4%90.6%58.2%55.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0087.6%83.4%90.6%58.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0087.6%83.4%90.6%58.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0087.6%83.4%90.6%58.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0087.6%83.4%90.6%58.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0087.6%91.0%89.7%71.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0087.6%91.0%89.7%71.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0087.6%91.0%89.7%71.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0087.6%91.0%89.7%71.2%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0087.7%91.0%89.7%71.3%63.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%80.8°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 290%81.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%81.8°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%79.3°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON64%78.2°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗