KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

30%

23%

20%

15%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.2¢Risks 12.10u

WN2NO 75.8¢Risks 37.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.90u · WN2 −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	4.0%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.0%	11.1%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	8.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	10.9%	5.7%	0.2%	5.7%	5.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	33%	77.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	77.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	75.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗