KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

30%

23%

20%

15%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.2¢Risks 12.10u

WN2NO 75.8¢Risks 37.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.90u · WN2 −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:25+00:00	23.8%	29.1%	22.2%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	23.8%	29.1%	22.2%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	23.8%	29.1%	22.2%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	23.8%	29.1%	22.2%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	23.8%	29.1%	22.2%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	23.8%	29.5%	22.3%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	23.8%	29.5%	22.3%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	23.8%	29.5%	22.3%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	37.1%	29.5%	22.3%	6.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	37.0%	29.5%	22.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:46+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	22.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	22.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	22.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	5.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	5.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	37.0%	29.8%	5.2%	6.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	5.2%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	5.2%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	5.2%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	5.2%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	5.2%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	31.3%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:02+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	8.5%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:32+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	27.7%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	37.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	20.2%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	33.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	20.2%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	33.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	20.2%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	33.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	20.2%	29.8%	3.4%	6.4%	33.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	20.2%	23.2%	15.2%	30.3%	33.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	20.2%	23.2%	15.2%	30.3%	33.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	20.2%	23.2%	15.2%	30.3%	33.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	20.2%	23.2%	15.2%	30.3%	33.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	20.2%	23.2%	15.2%	30.3%	33.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	33%	77.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	77.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	75.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗