KOKC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 5.27u

HRESNO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.73u · HRES −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	0.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	9.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.8°F	8.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	12%	68.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	69.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	64.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗