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KOKC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
20%
ICON
12%
AIFS
3%
WN2
<1%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 5.27u
VS
HRESNO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.73u · HRES −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00IFS HRES: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:003.0%20.5%0.9%0.6%12.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:003.0%20.5%0.9%0.6%12.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:003.0%20.5%0.9%0.6%12.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:003.0%20.5%0.9%0.6%12.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:003.0%20.5%0.9%0.6%11.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble20%73.8°F8.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend13%72.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON12%68.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%69.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%68.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%64.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗