KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

16%

16%

15%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

HRESNO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.55u · HRES −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	6.5%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	37.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	59.7%	26.9%	0.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	47.8%	2.0%	18.4%	—	22.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	25.8%	17.9%	10.7%	—	20.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	9.0%	16.9%	5.3%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	18.4%	1.8%	3.6%	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	7.0%	0.4%	4.3%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.8%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	2.1%	12.9%	1.9%	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	5.9%	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	2.9%	10.7%	3.2%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	3.5%	6.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.5%	10.3%	4.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.7%	22.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	5.6%	27.3%	4.0%	0.0%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	5.4%	21.4%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.5%	19.1%	1.1%	4.8%	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.9%	18.3%	1.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	6.7%	12.4%	1.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.4%	6.8%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.7%	5.0%	0.5%	4.3%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	15.6%	1.0%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	21.2%	2.3%	0.2%	1.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.2%	1.5%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	10.2%	3.4%	0.1%	0.6%	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	8.6%	1.4%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
IFS Ensemble	33%	68.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1069
AIFS Single	16%	66.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0266
WeatherNext 2	16%	66.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0256
ICON	15%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0231
IFS HRES	6%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0038

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗