KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

16%

16%

15%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

HRESNO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.55u · HRES −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:26+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	21.1%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	21.1%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	21.1%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	19.7%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	19.7%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	30.0%	34.9%	19.7%	29.6%	24.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	19.7%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	19.7%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	19.7%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	19.7%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	19.7%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	22.2%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	17.8%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	19.1%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	19.1%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	26.0%	34.9%	19.1%	15.7%	38.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	19.1%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	19.1%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	19.1%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	19.1%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	16.0%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	30.9%	34.9%	16.0%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	30.9%	32.7%	16.0%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	30.9%	32.7%	16.0%	6.2%	15.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	16.3%	32.7%	16.0%	6.2%	15.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	16.3%	32.7%	16.0%	6.2%	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
IFS Ensemble	33%	68.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1069
AIFS Single	16%	66.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0266
WeatherNext 2	16%	66.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0256
ICON	15%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0231
IFS HRES	6%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0038

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗