KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

45%

25%

23%

15%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

HRESNO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.65u · HRES −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	12.7%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.3%	14.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	34.3%	18.0%	0.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	26.6%	6.6%	3.9%	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	30.9%	1.1%	12.5%	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	8.7%	24.2%	7.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	14.3%	16.2%	8.7%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	1.1%	10.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	8.0%	33.8%	1.9%	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	6.3%	28.7%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	5.0%	28.2%	3.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	18.4%	26.1%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	20.3%	31.3%	3.4%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	14.6%	25.7%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	17.0%	25.9%	1.7%	—	6.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	26.2%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	27.3%	16.2%	1.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	19.0%	22.3%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	14.0%	17.5%	0.3%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	32.5%	16.7%	0.9%	—	4.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	33.1%	15.9%	0.9%	46.3%	5.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	18.2%	0.6%	—	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗