KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

45%

25%

23%

15%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

HRESNO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.65u · HRES −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00	32.2%	38.2%	37.6%	40.0%	12.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	42.9%	20.6%	36.7%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	42.9%	20.6%	36.7%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	42.9%	20.6%	40.5%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	42.9%	20.6%	40.5%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	42.9%	20.6%	40.5%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	40.5%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	40.5%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	40.5%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	40.5%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	34.2%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	42.6%	20.6%	34.2%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	42.6%	15.9%	34.2%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	42.6%	15.9%	34.2%	24.7%	51.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	39.0%	15.9%	34.2%	24.8%	51.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	39.0%	15.9%	34.2%	24.8%	51.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:32+00:00	34.2%	13.9%	48.3%	22.9%	55.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	34.2%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	55.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	34.2%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	55.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	34.2%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	55.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	32.9%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	32.9%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	32.9%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	32.9%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	32.9%	13.9%	46.6%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	32.9%	22.1%	47.1%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	32.9%	22.1%	47.1%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	32.9%	22.1%	47.1%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	29.3%	22.1%	47.1%	16.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	29.3%	22.1%	47.1%	16.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	43.6%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	43.6%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	34.4%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	34.4%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	34.4%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	32.4%	18.3%	34.4%	15.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	34.4%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	34.4%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	34.4%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	34.4%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	35.6%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	37.2%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	37.2%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	37.2%	18.3%	26.0%	14.9%	13.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	42.2%	22.6%	36.1%	12.6%	13.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	42.2%	22.6%	36.1%	12.6%	13.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	42.2%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	42.2%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	13.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	42.2%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	13.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	44.9%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	23.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	44.9%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	23.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	44.9%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	23.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	44.9%	22.6%	51.3%	12.6%	23.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	44.9%	24.9%	50.0%	14.7%	23.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	44.9%	24.9%	50.0%	14.7%	23.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	44.9%	24.9%	50.0%	14.7%	23.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	44.9%	24.9%	50.0%	14.7%	23.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	44.9%	24.8%	50.0%	14.7%	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗