KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

39%

30%

25%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.20u · HRES −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	28.9%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	0.1%	24.4%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	20.9%	19.9%	0.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	21.0%	42.0%	0.4%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	23.4%	56.1%	3.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	16.4%	61.8%	5.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	56.5%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	10.8%	51.7%	7.4%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	10.3%	51.7%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	32.2%	45.6%	16.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	22.2%	34.2%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	23.7%	39.1%	12.9%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	37.9%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	44.2%	34.8%	13.1%	—	17.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	35.3%	43.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	32.1%	39.8%	11.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	46.8%	42.6%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	38.2%	35.1%	11.4%	46.7%	16.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	32.6%	0.0%	—	12.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	75.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	73.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗