KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

39%

30%

25%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.20u · HRES −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:01+00:00	58.8%	21.1%	68.1%	37.5%	49.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	58.8%	21.1%	65.0%	37.5%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	58.8%	21.1%	65.0%	37.5%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	58.8%	21.1%	65.0%	37.5%	49.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	62.6%	21.1%	65.0%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	62.6%	21.1%	65.0%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	62.6%	21.1%	65.0%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	62.6%	21.1%	65.0%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	62.6%	21.1%	65.0%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	62.6%	30.1%	60.6%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	62.6%	30.1%	60.6%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	62.6%	30.1%	60.6%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	61.9%	30.1%	60.6%	34.5%	35.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	61.9%	30.1%	60.6%	34.6%	36.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00	63.4%	27.3%	64.2%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	63.4%	27.3%	68.7%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	63.4%	27.3%	68.7%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	63.4%	27.3%	68.7%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	63.4%	27.3%	68.7%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	66.1%	27.3%	68.7%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	66.1%	27.3%	68.7%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	66.1%	27.3%	68.7%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	66.1%	27.3%	68.7%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	65.6%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	65.6%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	65.6%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	65.6%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	62.8%	25.5%	65.6%	28.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	67.6%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	74.0%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	74.0%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	66.1%	25.5%	74.0%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	66.3%	25.5%	74.0%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	66.3%	25.5%	74.0%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	66.3%	25.5%	74.0%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	66.3%	25.5%	74.0%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	66.3%	25.5%	74.0%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	66.3%	28.6%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	66.3%	28.6%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	66.3%	28.6%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	66.3%	28.6%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	66.4%	28.6%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	76.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	26.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	66.2%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	66.4%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	70.5%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	70.5%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	70.5%	30.3%	68.3%	25.1%	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	75.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	73.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗