KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

18%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.0¢Risks 23.95u

EPSNO 76.0¢Risks 76.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.05u · EPS −76.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	14.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	0.0%	11.4%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	9.0%	8.5%	0.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	8.7%	22.6%	0.1%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	9.7%	33.7%	0.7%	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	5.7%	38.2%	1.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	32.6%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	3.1%	27.9%	1.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	2.8%	27.4%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	13.1%	22.1%	5.0%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	7.5%	14.0%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.9%	16.6%	3.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	15.4%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	19.0%	13.1%	3.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	13.0%	17.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.8%	15.1%	2.4%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	19.0%	16.3%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	13.1%	11.4%	2.1%	18.3%	3.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	9.7%	0.0%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	78.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	74.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗