KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

18%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.0¢Risks 23.95u

EPSNO 76.0¢Risks 76.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.05u · EPS −76.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	32.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	32.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	18.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	45.2%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	38.1%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	39.6%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	39.6%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	39.6%	10.6%	35.8%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	34.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	34.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	34.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	12.3%	24.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	32.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	37.2%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	40.5%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	40.5%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	40.5%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	40.5%	7.4%	36.4%	7.8%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	78.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	74.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗