KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

47%

44%

27%

23%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · EPS −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.3%	48.0%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	34.9%	34.9%	0.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	29.1%	52.2%	24.9%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	2.5%	56.1%	7.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	48.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	30.1%	46.8%	26.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	25.8%	36.1%	21.3%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	12.3%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	46.5%	41.3%	15.6%	—	12.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	33.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	33.0%	50.9%	14.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	50.0%	49.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	35.7%	46.1%	21.0%	48.0%	12.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	53.0%	—	—	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	68%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	76.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	74.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗