KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

47%

44%

27%

23%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · EPS −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:02+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	72.5%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	72.5%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	68.8%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	68.8%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	68.8%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	67.1%	25.2%	68.8%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	68.8%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	68.8%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	68.8%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	68.8%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	55.9%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	63.4%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	63.4%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	63.4%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	60.9%	25.2%	63.4%	27.7%	18.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	63.4%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	63.4%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	63.4%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	58.8%	25.2%	63.4%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	58.8%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	58.8%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	58.8%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	58.8%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	48.4%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00	48.4%	22.1%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	48.4%	22.7%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	48.4%	22.7%	53.9%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	48.4%	22.7%	55.8%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	48.4%	22.7%	55.8%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	48.4%	22.7%	55.8%	26.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	55.8%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	55.8%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	55.8%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	55.8%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	55.8%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	52.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	44.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	44.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	44.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	44.4%	22.7%	61.5%	27.3%	47.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	68%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	76.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	74.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗