KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

35%

29%

17%

11%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u

EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	34.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	23.0%	23.0%	0.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	17.9%	37.8%	14.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.0%	40.9%	3.2%	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	33.4%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	17.9%	31.6%	14.9%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	14.3%	21.9%	11.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	5.6%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	29.9%	25.5%	7.3%	—	5.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	19.0%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	18.4%	33.0%	6.6%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	31.8%	30.9%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	19.7%	27.9%	9.8%	29.6%	4.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	33.5%	—	—	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	35%	77.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	76.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	74.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗