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KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
42%
ICON
35%
AIFS
29%
HRES
17%
EPS
11%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u
VS
EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00IFS HRES: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:0032.8%10.0%34.9%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:0032.8%10.6%34.9%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:0032.8%10.6%34.9%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:0032.8%10.6%36.7%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:0032.8%10.6%36.7%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:0032.8%10.6%36.7%16.7%37.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:0036.6%10.6%36.7%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:0036.6%10.6%36.7%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0036.6%10.6%36.7%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:0036.6%10.6%36.7%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:0036.6%10.6%36.7%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:0036.6%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:0036.6%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:0036.6%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:0029.3%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:0029.3%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:0029.3%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0029.3%10.6%42.3%17.1%34.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%78.7°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON35%77.1°F6.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend33%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
AIFS Single29%76.8°F5.0°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES17%74.0°F5.8°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble11%74.5°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗