KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

73%

68%

57%

43%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

HRESNO 36.7¢Risks 36.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.65u · HRES −36.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	91.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	93.5%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	84.9%	98.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	94.0%	96.4%	36.2%	—	64.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	99.8%	88.3%	89.0%	—	65.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	99.1%	92.4%	76.6%	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	64.1%	51.6%	54.0%	—	57.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	73.7%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	71.4%	32.2%	44.2%	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	68.9%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	61.3%	50.0%	75.2%	—	57.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	64.9%	32.6%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	67.0%	33.0%	25.9%	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	76.9%	36.1%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	70.4%	47.1%	28.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	70.9%	77.4%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	73.2%	46.9%	42.8%	—	53.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	74.7%	43.7%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	58.7%	35.1%	27.3%	—	79.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	63.3%	50.0%	29.6%	—	95.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	89.5%	47.7%	65.9%	98.9%	94.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	84.8%	48.8%	50.0%	—	74.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	97.0%	75.4%	64.6%	98.6%	94.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	98.4%	63.9%	61.5%	—	96.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	97.0%	85.9%	61.9%	99.4%	96.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	96.3%	96.3%	40.3%	—	97.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	96.8%	97.7%	33.1%	98.5%	90.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	22.4%	11.2%	12.0%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.1%	3.1%	0.5%	0.0%	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	6.8%	2.6%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	66.1°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.7022
ICON	73%	62.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5285
WeatherNext 2	68%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4692
AIFS Single	57%	60.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3238
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2970
IFS HRES	43%	58.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1840
National Blend	40%	58.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1560

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗