KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

73%

68%

57%

43%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

HRESNO 36.7¢Risks 36.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.65u · HRES −36.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00	63.6%	84.1%	52.9%	54.8%	81.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	63.6%	84.1%	52.9%	54.8%	81.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	63.6%	84.1%	61.6%	54.8%	81.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	63.6%	84.1%	61.6%	54.8%	81.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	63.6%	84.1%	61.6%	54.8%	81.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	61.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	61.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	61.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	61.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	61.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	64.4%	84.1%	68.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	64.4%	84.0%	68.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	64.4%	84.0%	68.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	56.9%	84.0%	68.6%	42.9%	72.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	56.9%	83.8%	68.5%	42.9%	72.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	66.1°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.7022
ICON	73%	62.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5285
WeatherNext 2	68%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4692
AIFS Single	57%	60.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3238
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2970
IFS HRES	43%	58.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1840
National Blend	40%	58.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1560

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗