KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

80%

77%

75%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.6¢Risks 41.30u

ICONNO 17.4¢Risks 8.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.70u · ICON −8.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	3.9%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	3.9%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	64.4%	41.6%	57.0%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	73.4%	64.3%	81.6%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	74.9%	91.0%	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	88.9%	76.4%	86.4%	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	21.8%	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	91.3%	89.5%	76.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	79.9%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	82.2%	89.9%	81.6%	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	82.2%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	80.4%	88.1%	79.1%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	81.7%	82.9%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	83.5%	81.0%	81.7%	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	84.8%	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	81.7%	83.7%	81.7%	—	68.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	73.0%	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	76.2%	80.2%	87.5%	—	71.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	72.4%	81.0%	0.6%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	68.0%	86.6%	82.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	67.5%	87.4%	85.5%	—	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	63.4%	92.0%	83.4%	33.1%	70.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	62.7%	92.8%	85.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	58.0%	93.5%	80.9%	27.3%	61.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	75.8%	93.8%	80.9%	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	85.4%	94.9%	83.7%	44.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	86.4%	92.5%	76.4%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	86.6%	95.2%	77.4%	43.7%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	97.4%	97.9%	92.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	65.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	62.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	65.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	59.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗