KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

80%

77%

75%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.6¢Risks 41.30u

ICONNO 17.4¢Risks 8.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.70u · ICON −8.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00	47.1%	79.2%	90.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	47.1%	79.2%	90.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	47.1%	79.2%	90.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	47.1%	79.2%	90.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00	47.1%	79.2%	90.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	47.1%	77.8%	77.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	47.1%	77.8%	77.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	47.1%	77.8%	77.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	84.3%	77.8%	77.4%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	84.2%	77.8%	77.3%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:38+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	77.3%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	77.3%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	77.3%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	76.6%	74.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	76.6%	74.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	76.6%	74.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	76.6%	74.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	79.1%	76.6%	74.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	84.2%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	90.4%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	90.4%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	90.4%	79.5%	88.7%	76.6%	74.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	65.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	62.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	65.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	59.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗