KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

78%

45%

30%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

HRESNO 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.40u · HRES −42.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	9.0%	21.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	45.8%	43.7%	11.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	63.6%	55.8%	42.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	46.9%	74.9%	23.4%	—	22.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	48.4%	60.3%	15.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	2.0%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	38.5%	57.5%	30.0%	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	26.0%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	45.6%	49.1%	32.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	37.6%	33.4%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	33.9%	49.1%	28.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	30.1%	51.9%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	19.7%	62.4%	24.0%	—	24.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	25.7%	67.4%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	20.4%	58.2%	10.3%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	22.8%	56.3%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	26.4%	59.7%	14.9%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	30.5%	71.4%	0.4%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	26.0%	64.8%	6.1%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	40.5%	65.3%	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	42.6%	68.0%	9.5%	12.4%	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	51.3%	70.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	67.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗