KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

78%

45%

30%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

HRESNO 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.40u · HRES −42.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:57+00:00	77.3%	51.4%	73.3%	31.1%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	77.3%	51.4%	82.1%	31.1%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	77.3%	51.4%	82.1%	31.1%	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	77.3%	51.4%	82.1%	31.1%	26.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	77.3%	51.4%	82.1%	31.1%	26.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	78.5%	51.4%	82.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	78.5%	51.4%	82.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	78.5%	51.4%	82.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	78.5%	51.4%	82.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	78.5%	51.4%	82.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	78.5%	41.9%	77.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	78.5%	41.9%	77.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	78.5%	41.9%	77.1%	28.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	70.6%	42.1%	77.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	70.6%	42.1%	77.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	77.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	77.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	74.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	74.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	74.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	74.1%	28.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	74.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	74.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	74.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	74.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	74.7%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	76.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	84.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	84.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.2%	39.8%	84.1%	23.2%	24.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	78.4%	39.8%	84.1%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	78.4%	39.8%	84.1%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	78.4%	39.8%	84.1%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	78.4%	39.8%	84.1%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	78.4%	39.8%	84.1%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	78.4%	45.1%	85.7%	29.5%	29.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	78.4%	45.1%	85.7%	29.5%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	67.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗