KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.25u · EPS −74.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	9.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	5.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	5.2%	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	18.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	16.4%	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	46.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	1.0%	14.7%	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	28.6%	6.7%	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	37.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	7.9%	2.0%	3.9%	5.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	5.4%	31.6%	4.4%	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	32.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	2.1%	8.1%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	0.2%	7.3%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	1.6%	29.3%	0.8%	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	26.0%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.9%	26.9%	1.7%	3.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	1.5%	30.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	25.9%	0.6%	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	3.0%	27.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	4.9%	30.4%	0.4%	3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.0%	31.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	66.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	69.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗