KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.25u · EPS −74.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	41.3%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	41.3%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	41.3%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	46.1%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	46.1%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	50.8%	5.5%	46.1%	18.0%	11.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	46.1%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	46.1%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	46.1%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	46.1%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	46.1%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	37.3%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	46.0%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	46.0%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	46.0%	5.5%	32.2%	6.2%	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	66.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	69.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗